MEETING ON POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES

MEETING ON
EARLY WARNING AND EARLY RESPONSE:
POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES

HOTEL REGENT PLAZA
EMERALD-II
OCTOBER 1, 2010

PROGRAM ON PEACE STUDIES AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION,
DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,
UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI
IN COLLABORATION WITH REGIONAL CENTER
FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES COLOMBO AND GLOBAL PARTNARSHIP FOR THE PREVENTION OF ARMED CONFLICTS, THE NETHERLANDS

CONCEPT PAPER*

MEETING ON EARLY WARNING AND EARLY RESPONSE: POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES

OCTOBER 1, 2010

MISSION STATEMENT

The purpose of Karachi meeting which is organized in collaboration with the Regional Center for Strategic Studies, Colombo, Sri Lanka and Global Platform for the Prevention of Armed Conflicts (GPPAC) the Netherlands is to enter into a meaningful discourse on early warning and early response to effectively deal with social and political issues faced by the countries of South Asia.

BACKGROUND

Early warning is a concept which aims to alert and caution state authorities and societal forces to cope with natural and man made disasters. With the emergence of new conflicts and the intensity of social and political conflicts in different parts of the world, the need of early warning to deal with such issues in order to reduce human sufferings, casualties and ordeal gained prominence.
In a situation when the threat of conflict escalation is not understood and the government is not warned to deal with an impending social or political crisis, the outcome may be chaos, disorder and colossal human sufferings. In some cases, early warning is given for a natural or man made disasters, but is there a mechanism at the state and societal level to provide early warning so as to prevent a social disaster from taking place? How social and political conflicts can be prevented with the help of EWER?

Social and political conflicts are a source of major instability in all the South Asian conflicts. When a society is exposed to social stratification, social discrimination and when political issues of intractable nature endanger peace and stability, the need for dealing with all such challenges by evolving a mechanisms of EWES cannot be undermined. Some of the social and political issues which have a potential of conflict potential:

1. Human rights’ violations, including genocide and ethnic cleansing
2. Election and post-election violence
3. Ethnic and class based tension
4. Religious and caste based persecution
5. State versus militant groups and the IDPs
6. Gender and youth based tension
7. Collapse of public utilities
8. Lack of good governance

Kumar Rupesinghe, the pioneer of early warning mechanism in South Asia argues that, 'the concept and establishment of an "early warning" system for natural and man-made disasters has been a growing concern for a variety of international organizations in recent years. The concern is based on an increased humanitarian consciousness to develop information systems which could not only establish rapid and early forms of reporting, but also develop ways of preventing the repeated occurrences of such disasters." While, one cannot disagree with the importance and relevance of Early Warning and Early Response (EWER) for dealing with natural and man-made disasters, one also needs to look into the necessity for EWER arrangements for the prevention and management of social and political conflicts in South Asia.

Present day International Relations have reached a critical point because majority of states are unable to cope with threats which endanger the survival of mankind. It is not only the case of ethnic, sectarian, religious, political, cultural and environmental conflicts which tend to augment insecurity and crisis but the failure of states to evolve a system which can provide early warning to the outbreak of such conflicts. Hence, there is the need, relevance and rationale for an early warning mechanism in order to cope with crises, disasters and other types of threats to human survival.

With the advancement in science and technology and the growing awareness among people about natural and man made disasters, there is a hope that one can proceed in the direction of evolving early warning systems which can monitor potential conflicts, their possibility of escalation and suggest measures for the prevention of such conflicts to take a serious shape. By acquiring the expertise in early warning, state and non-state actors can also hope to prevent and manage conflicts. Nevertheless, the concepts of early warning and early response, if understood and applied in a professional manner can become a basis of managing crisis at different levels and promote the process of cooperation among the countries of different regions of the world, including South Asia.
In the world of globalization, soft power, information technology and geo-economics, one can expect more and more sharing of knowledge and expertise on issues which can make the people of this world secure. Early warning is one such technique which can minimize the risks and threats to domestic, regional and international peace and security. EWER aim to collect data, information on the nature of potential conflicts and their escalation. Monitoring of conflicts and predicting their transformation also comes under EWER. Consequently, the process of regional cooperation will also get an impetus if state and non-state actors share experience and expertise in early warning so as to cope with natural and man made disasters.

Questions to be examined:-

Some of the questions which can be raised while examining the concept of early warning and early response in the context of social and political conflicts are as follows:-

1. What is the concept of early warning and how the early warning and early response can help prevent the outbreak of social and economic crisis and conflict?

2. What are the social and political conflicts which require the use of EWER for the prevention and management?

3. What can be the role of civil society groups in making use of EWER for the prevention and management of social political conflicts?

4. What is the role of earning warning for dealing with health and epidemics hazards which are considered as a major social challenge?

5. What are the limitations to follow EWER for social and political conflict prevention in South Asia?

6. How far EWER at the South Asian level can help develop a cooperative approach for dealing with social and political conflicts in the region?

Following are the objectives of Karachi meeting:-

1. To examine in depth the concept of early warning and early response in the context of social and political issues in South Asia.

2. To explore the linkage between early warning and early response and then to relate the two for the management of social and political issues in South Asia.

3. To enter into a meaningful discourse for suggesting a viable role of civil society groups in South Asia for the prevention and management of social and political conflicts.

4. To examine the limitations in EWER and to explore the possibility of dealing with such limitations.
5. To discuss the possibility of formulating a research project in EWER for the prevention and management of social and political conflicts in South Asia.

*Prepared by Prof. Dr. Moonis Ahmar, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi and Director, Program on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution (www.ppscr.org)

PPSCR

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